Banks stumble, individual stocks feast. As a high dividend sector, bank stocks were once the hottest sector of the year. After the release of the mid-year reports, the bank sector, due to the mismatch between its performance and price increase, finally could not withstand the selling pressure of huge profit-taking positions and once again became the leading decliner yesterday.

Bank of Communications' highest price this year was 8.06 yuan, and the closing price yesterday was 6.88 yuan. In just five days, the stock price fell by 1.18 yuan. Last year, Bank of Communications' dividend per share was 0.375 yuan, which means the stock price has dropped by more than three years of dividends paid.

The decline of Bank of Communications and the other five major banks is related to mortgage loans to a certain extent. In the first half of 2024, the personal housing loans of the six state-owned banks decreased by 325.471 billion yuan, and the total personal housing loans of the six major banks decreased by 556.857 billion yuan in 2023. Since mortgage interest rates are generally above 4%, while deposit interest rates are around 2%. As long as there is a way to repay the loan in advance, homebuyers can save a lot of interest expenses.

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Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's highest price in this round was 6.57 yuan, and the closing price yesterday was 5.76 yuan, with a market value loss of 288.6 billion yuan; China Construction Bank's highest price was 8.41 yuan, and the closing price yesterday was 7.32 yuan, with a market value loss of 272.5 billion yuan; Agricultural Bank of China's highest price was 5.01 yuan. The closing price yesterday was 4.48 yuan, with a market value loss of 185.5 billion yuan; Bank of China's highest price was 5.20 yuan, and the closing price yesterday was 4.76 yuan, with a market value loss of 129.4 billion yuan; Bank of Communications' highest price was 8.06 yuan, and the closing price yesterday was 6.88 yuan, with a market value loss of 87.6 billion yuan; Postal Savings Bank's highest price was 5.22 yuan, and the closing price yesterday was 4.63 yuan, with a market value loss of 58.4 billion yuan. The total market value loss of the six major banks is 1016 billion yuan.

The market value of the bank sector last year was less than 10 trillion, and the highest this year was 12.3 trillion, and the latest market value is 11.3 trillion. The inflated market value obviously cannot last long. Therefore, it is estimated that the stock prices of bank stocks need to be adjusted for a longer period, and there will definitely be rebounds during this period, but the continuity will not be very strong.

At least for now, it is not the best time to buy bank stocks. Of course, if you can hold them for 5-10 years and like to receive dividend bonuses, you can completely ignore the fluctuations in stock prices.

It is worth mentioning that Postal Savings Bank is very different from the other five major banks. The major shareholders of the four major banks of Industrial and Agricultural Construction are mainly Central Huijin, the major shareholder of Bank of Communications is the Ministry of Finance, and the major shareholder of Postal Savings Bank is China Post Group.

The closing price of Postal Savings Bank last year was 4.35 yuan, and the closing price yesterday was 4.63 yuan. Compared with the other five major banks, the stock price only increased by 0.28 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.06%, which is the smallest increase among the six major banks. Isn't that interesting?

Why is Buffett selling U.S. banks now? Because Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently attended a closed-door meeting attended by CEOs of major U.S. banks, encouraging them to cooperate with the Federal Reserve.

Banks with assets over 100 billion yuan must increase their capital by 16%. Powell also mentioned the European Union's implementation of the Basel Accord regulations, pointing out that the European Union's version will increase the capital of banks by 10% on the original basis.The U.S. stock market fell yesterday, and it is estimated that bank stocks will come out to support the market again today. Will you choose to buy or sell? Everyone has their own choice, and of course, they must be responsible for their own investments.

The above is just my personal opinion and should not be taken as investment advice. Any profits or losses resulting from acting on this information are at your own risk.