According to the website of the National Bureau of Statistics, on October 13th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index for Industrial Products) data for September 2024. In this regard, Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, provided an interpretation.

I. CPI remained unchanged month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase fell back

In September, the consumer market operated smoothly overall, with prices remaining basically stable. The national CPI remained unchanged month-on-month, and increased by 0.4% year-on-year.

From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI remained unchanged, compared to a 0.4% increase in the previous month. Among them, food prices increased by 0.8%, with the increase falling by 2.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, affecting the month-on-month increase in CPI by about 0.16 percentage points. In the food category, the start of the school season combined with the Mid-Autumn Festival and other factors affected the prices of fresh vegetables, eggs, fresh fruits, and pork, which increased by 4.3%, 2.5%, 2.1%, and 0.4% respectively, collectively affecting the month-on-month increase in CPI by about 0.17 percentage points; the end of the fishing ban increased supply, and the price of aquatic products decreased by 0.5%. Non-food prices decreased by 0.2%, with the decrease narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, affecting the month-on-month decrease in CPI by about 0.18 percentage points. Among non-food items, the end of the summer season reduced travel, and the prices of airplane tickets, hotel accommodation, and tourism decreased by 14.8%, 7.4%, and 6.3% respectively; affected by international oil price fluctuations, domestic gasoline prices decreased by 2.9%; affected by the start of the new school term, the price of educational services increased by 0.9%; with the autumn clothing season changing, clothing prices increased by 0.8%.

Advertisement

From a year-on-year perspective, the CPI increased by 0.4%, with the increase falling by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, mainly due to the high base of comparison with the same period last year. Among them, food prices increased by 3.3%, with the increase expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, affecting the year-on-year increase in CPI by about 0.61 percentage points. In the food category, the prices of fresh vegetables, pork, and fresh fruits increased by 22.9%, 16.2%, and 6.7% respectively, with the increases all expanding; the prices of beef, mutton, eggs, chicken, and dairy products decreased by 1.9% to 13.1%, with the decreases slightly expanding. Non-food prices changed from a 0.2% increase in the previous month to a 0.2% decrease, affecting the year-on-year decrease in CPI by about 0.19 percentage points. Among non-food items, energy prices decreased by 3.5%, with the decrease expanding by 2.5 percentage points compared to the previous month. The price of industrial consumer goods excluding energy decreased by 0.2%, with the decrease remaining the same as the previous month, among which the prices of new energy passenger cars and fuel-powered passenger cars decreased by 6.9% and 6.1% respectively, with both decreases narrowing; the prices of Chinese medicinal materials, household textiles, and gold jewelry increased by 3.9% to 22.5%. Service prices increased by 0.2%, with the increase falling by 0.3 percentage points, among which tourism prices changed from a 0.9% increase in the previous month to a 2.1% decrease; airplane ticket and hotel accommodation prices decreased by 14.1% and 5.6% respectively, with both decreases expanding.

According to calculations, in the 0.4% year-on-year change in CPI in September, the carry-over effect was approximately -0.5 percentage points, compared to -0.3 percentage points in the previous month; the new impact of this year's price changes was approximately 0.9 percentage points, the same as the previous month.

II. The month-on-month decrease in PPI narrowed, and the year-on-year decrease expanded

In September, affected by fluctuations in international commodity prices and insufficient effective domestic market demand, the month-on-month decrease in PPI narrowed, and the year-on-year decrease expanded.

From a month-on-month perspective, PPI decreased by 0.6%, with the decrease narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production decreased by 0.8%, with the decrease narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month; the price of means of subsistence changed from being flat to a 0.1% decrease. The downward trend in international oil prices led to a 3.2% decrease in domestic oil and natural gas extraction industry prices. International non-ferrous metal prices first decreased and then increased, affecting domestic non-ferrous metal smelting and processing industry prices to decrease by 0.4%, with the decrease narrowing by 1.9 percentage points compared to the previous month. The real estate market is still in the adjustment period, and coupled with some areas being hit by strong wind and rain weather, the overall demand for building materials is relatively weak, with the price of non-metallic mineral products industry decreasing by 0.8%. Affected by policy expectations, the demand for steel in the second half of September showed signs of recovery, but the price of black metal smelting and processing industry still decreased by 3.3% for the whole month, with the decrease narrowing by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. National coal production remains stable, and winter coal reserves are sufficient, with the price of coal mining and washing industry decreasing by 1.3%. In the equipment manufacturing industry, the price of lithium-ion battery manufacturing decreased by 0.3%, and the price of new energy vehicle manufacturing decreased by 0.1%; the price of power electronic components manufacturing increased by 1.8%, and the price of industrial robot manufacturing increased by 0.6%. In the consumer goods manufacturing industry, the price of agricultural and sideline food processing industry decreased by 0.3%, and the price of food manufacturing industry decreased by 0.2%; the price of cultural, educational, sports, and entertainment goods manufacturing industry increased by 0.4%, and the price of textile, apparel, and garment industry increased by 0.2%.From a year-on-year perspective, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.8%, with a wider decline of 1.0 percentage points compared to the previous month due to the high base of comparison from the same period last year. Among this, the price of production materials fell by 3.3%, with the decline expanding by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month; the price of consumer goods decreased by 1.3%, with the decline widening by 0.2 percentage points. Among the 40 major industrial sectors surveyed, the price in the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry fell by 11.1%, the petroleum and natural gas extraction industry fell by 10.1%, the petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industry fell by 9.4%, the non-metallic mineral products industry fell by 5.1%, the agricultural and sideline food processing industry fell by 4.9%, the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry fell by 4.1%, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry fell by 3.1%, and the coal mining and washing industry fell by 2.6%. The combined impact of these eight industries contributed to a year-on-year decrease in the PPI of approximately 2.04 percentage points, accounting for more than 70% of the total decline, and the downward pull on the PPI expanded by 0.74 percentage points compared to the previous month. The non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry saw a price increase of 5.9%, the cultural, educational, artistic, sports, and entertainment goods manufacturing industry saw a price increase of 4.6%, and the railway, ship, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry saw a price increase of 0.5%.

According to estimates, in the -2.8% year-on-year change of the PPI for September, the carryover effect was approximately -0.5 percentage points, compared to -0.1 percentage points in the previous month; the new impact of this year's price changes was approximately -2.3 percentage points, compared to -1.7 percentage points in the previous month.